Read this if you are a CEO, CFO, COO, Controller, Financial Analyst, or in a leadership position at a Critical Access Hospital.
For many Critical Access Hospitals (CAHs), year-end Medicare settlements can be unpredictable—sometimes exceeding expectations, sometimes leaving an unexpected shortfall. These surprises often stem from a lack of proactive reimbursement modeling, and they can have real consequences for cash flow, operations, and long-term planning. The good news is that with the right tools and strategies, CAHs can anticipate settlements, make informed decisions, and strengthen their long-term sustainability.
Why Medicare settlement surprises happen
One of the most common pitfalls we see is failing to evaluate how operational decisions affect cost-based reimbursement. Not all costs are reimbursable, and even reimbursable costs do not influence Medicare reimbursement equally. For example, investing in a building renovation, such as modernizing patient rooms or repurposing space for nonclinical functions, may increase depreciation, interest, and allocated overhead costs. However, if the renovated space supports non-reimbursable activities or shifts square footage away from patient care cost centers, the investment may result in little to no increase in Medicare reimbursement despite its operational and community value. Without modeling these impacts in advance, well-intended decisions can unknowingly dilute cost-based reimbursement.
Another frequent issue is not estimating Medicare settlements regularly throughout the year. Without timely estimates, hospitals lack visibility into expected reimbursement and are effectively operating without actionable insight until the year-end cost report is prepared. Once that point is reached, opportunities to adjust operations or proactively manage cash flow have largely passed. As a result, CAHs may overlook opportunities to request interim rate adjustments during the year, an important mechanism for improving cash flow and better aligning reimbursement with current cost structures. This is particularly impactful for Medicare Advantage plans, which typically reimburse based on interim rates and do not reconcile to actual costs, magnifying the financial consequences of outdated or inaccurate rates.
Developing a proactive reimbursement strategy
To reduce financial risk and strengthen financial management, CAHs should adopt a strategy that combines regular modeling of Medicare reimbursement, proactive planning, and team-wide education.
We recommend implementing a Medicare reimbursement model that can be updated monthly, or at least quarterly. The model can help track trends, anticipate settlements, and inform operational decisions. Importantly, it should be flexible enough to account for changes throughout the year and provide insight into when a hospital should request an interim rate adjustment.
Hospitals should model the reimbursement impact before making any major operational changes. Whether it’s launching a new service line, expanding square footage, or adjusting staffing levels, modeling can help clarify whether those changes will improve, reduce, or have little effect on Medicare reimbursement.
In addition to operational planning, reimbursement modeling should be fully integrated into capital planning and long-term strategic investment decisions. Many CAHs pursue facility expansions, technology upgrades, or new clinical services without fully evaluating how those investments will affect Medicare cost-based reimbursement. By modeling reimbursement impacts and incorporating them into ROI analyses, leadership can make more informed, data-driven decisions, prioritizing projects that advance the hospital’s mission while also strengthening margin and supporting long-term financial sustainability.
To fully realize the benefits of proactive reimbursement modeling, it’s essential that hospital leadership and finance staff understand the fundamentals of Medicare cost-based reimbursement, including how costs flow through the cost report and ultimately impact settlement. Knowledge at all levels ensures operational and strategic decisions are aligned with reimbursement realities.
Options for estimating Medicare settlements
There are two primary methods that CAHs can use to estimate their Medicare cost-based reimbursement throughout the year: preparing an interim cost report or using a reimbursement model.
Preparing an interim cost report mirrors the actual Medicare cost report process and provides a detailed, accurate picture of expected reimbursement. This approach can be time-intensive for finance teams and, as such, these reports are often only prepared once toward the end of the fiscal year, limiting their usefulness for real-time decision-making. However, it is often the best choice when a hospital has experienced significant operational changes, particularly those affecting overhead allocations such as expanding into new space or launching a new service line.
Using a reimbursement model offers more flexibility and can provide regular insights throughout the year. Hospitals can choose from different levels of complexity depending on their needs:
- A step-down model closely replicates the cost report by using detailed statistics and overhead allocations. This type of model is best suited for quarterly updates as it can be relatively burdensome. If revisions to overhead allocation details are needed, some hospitals instead opt to complete an interim cost report.
- A high-level relational model estimates reimbursement based on prior year cost report data, adjusted for high-level changes in revenue and expenses. This model is simple to use and ideal for monthly updates, though it may be less precise. If a hospital has experienced significant operational changes, this type of model may not be the right fit.
- A departmental model strikes the right balance for many hospitals. It applies current revenue and expense data at the department level to capture service mix changes and departmental cost-to-charge ratios, while using consistent reclassifications, adjustments, and overhead allocation ratios from the previous cost report. This model can be updated monthly or quarterly and tends to offer greater accuracy without becoming overly burdensome.
While a model provides critical visibility throughout the year, it’s important to recognize that if substantial operational changes occur, an interim cost report may still be necessary to reflect those changes accurately in your estimates.
Turning insights into action
Ultimately, the most successful CAHs treat Medicare settlement estimation as a year-round activity—not a once-a-year event. By proactively estimating cost-based reimbursement, you can avoid cash flow surprises, justify interim rate changes, and better align operational and strategic decisions with reimbursement outcomes.
Whether you’re building a model for the first time or looking to refine your current process, BerryDunn can help you choose the right approach for your hospital, design and customize a model to your needs, train your finance and leadership teams, and support your financial planning throughout the year. Learn more about our team and services.