Read this if you are a financial institution.
Choosing a method for estimating lifetime expected losses is a commitment. A commitment that signals, in spite of any other option, you’re certain this method is the right one for you—your segment, portfolio, and institution. While you might be able to support a change in method later, it is much more likely you’ll be living with this decision a good long while. So, how exactly does one know which method is the right one? Let’s take a few minutes to answer some frequently asked questions about selecting methods for CECL.
How many CECL methods are there?
This depends on who you ask. Section 326-20-30-3 of the standard names five (5) categories: discounted cash flow, loss-rate, roll-rate, probability of default, and aging schedule. Some categories, like loss-rate, have several methods. Additionally, some methods seem to be referred to by different names, giving people the impression that there are exponentially more options out there than there really are. With this in mind, I tend to think of two (2) broad categories, and seven (7) unique methods:
- Loss-rate methods
- Snapshot (open pool, static pool, cumulative loss rate)
- Remaining Life and Weighted Average Remaining Maturity (WARM)
- Vintage
- Other methods
- Scaled CECL Allowance for Losses Estimator (SCALE) (option for banks with assets <$1 billion)
- Discounted Cash Flow (DCF)
- Probability of default
- Migration (roll rate, aging schedule)
What’s the difference?
The loss-rate methods use actual historical net charge-off information in different ways to derive a loss rate that can then be used to calculate expected losses over the remaining life of a pool. In general, they do this by holding the mix of a group of loans constant (e.g., by year of origination) and then tracking net losses tied to that grouping over time. The “other” methods employ a variety of mathematical techniques and/or credit quality information to estimate expected lifetime losses. For a quick overview of each method and corresponding resources, access our CECL methodologies guide here.
How do I know which to use?
This is the CECL equivalent of the proverbial million-dollar question. Technically, any institution could use any one, or all of these methods. But there are considerations that make some of them a more or less likely fit. For example, if your institution has >$1 billion in assets, SCALE is not even an option for you, and you can cross it off the list. If you are not in a position to afford software, or lack the internal expertise to build a similar model internally, then discounted cash flow and probability of default methods would likely be extremely burdensome in the normal course of business. For that reason, you may need to cross those off your list. If you lack large pools with consistently diverse performance over time, then migration methods will be difficult to support. If you have a relatively stable loan mix, consistent credit culture, and a lot of reliable historical loss data—especially through multiple economic cycles—the loss-rate methods may be a good fit, with or without software. If your portfolio has undergone a lot of changes—products, underwriting standards, merger and acquisition activity—and/or there are significant gaps in key data that cannot be restored, then you might want to re-consider software and one of the “other” methods.
What are the pros and cons of the various methods?
One pro of the loss-rate and SCALE methods is they have been shown to be manageable without software. Examples of all of these methods have been illustrated using Excel spreadsheets. The use of Excel is also potentially a con, given that more spreadsheets and, maybe more people, are likely going to be involved in computing the Allowance for Credit Losses (ACL). As a result, version control as well as validation of spreadsheet macros, inputs, formulas, math, and risk of accidentally overwriting or deleting values should be addressed. One pro of the discounted cash flow method is that it is a bottom-up approach, meaning each loan’s discounted cash flow (DCF) is computed and then rolled up to the segment level. Because of this, DCF can more easily handle mixed pools, e.g., loans of all vintages, sizes, terms, payment and amortization schedules, etc. A potential con of DCF is that it really requires software, staff trained to use the software appropriately, and an understanding of the vast array of choices, levers, and decisions that come with it.
Does my choice of method affect my qualitative adjustment options?
How’s this for commitment: maybe. In general, I think it’s safe to say that CECL requires additional thought be given to the nature and degree of adjustments. This is especially true when you look at the combination of potential segmentation changes, new elements of the calculation, and the variety of methods now available. Consider the example of a bank using a loss-rate method and facing a potential economic downturn. If that bank has sufficient history and a relatively stable portfolio mix, credit culture, and geography, then it might elect to use a different time period—say, historical loss-rates observed from the last recession—rather than those more recently computed. In this case, the loss-rate method would already be using a recessionary experience.
How then, would the bank approach additional qualitative adjustments for changing economic outlooks to ensure it is not layering (or double counting) reserve? Going back to the original “maybe” response, perhaps the answer is less about inherent conflicts between methods and qualitative adjustments. Rather, it’s about understanding that given your chosen method, you may be faced with even more decisions about if, where, and how much adjusting you are doing.
CECL adoption is required. Struggling to adopt isn’t. We can help.
No matter what stage of CECL readiness you are in, we can help you navigate the requirements as efficiently and effectively as possible. For more information, visit the CECL page on our website. If you would like specific answers to questions about your CECL implementation, please visit our Ask the Advisor page to submit your questions.
For more tips on documenting your CECL adoption, stay tuned for our next article in the series. You can also follow Susan Weber on LinkedIn.